Who gave the Year of the Loong the first movie ticket？ Digital Intelligence Disassembles the Competition Pattern of Spring Festival in 2024

Wen | Zero One

As one of the most important schedules, the Spring Festival has always been the most eye-catching movie main stage in the industry. According to the statistics of "Annual Inventory Report of China Film Market in 2023" released by Lighthouse Research Institute and Xinhuanet, the contribution of Spring Festival to the box office in recent three years reached 7.843 billion, 6.040 billion and 6.766 billion respectively, accounting for 17%, 20% and 12% of the total box office in that year, which shows the importance of this schedule to the market. And 2024 is the longest eight-day Spring Festival file in history, which is expected to push the box office figures to continue to rise.

According to the professional edition of Lighthouse, eight films, including YOLO’s Pegasus 2, Boonie Bears: Time Twist, Article 20, The Movie Emperor, Viva La Vida, and The Lower Bound of Bajie’s Canopy, have been scheduled for the Spring Festival in 2024. From the content point of view, Reading Entertainment believes that this film list has three characteristics:

First, it will become the "most laughter" session of the Spring Festival. Comedy is in the majority, and the content and style are mostly appealing to both refined and popular tastes, which is more inclusive and highly accepted by the public.

Second, although comedy is the main theme, the films focus on different subdivisions, such as plot, racing, social issues, entertainment circles, etc., and the director’s style is quite different. Although it is not as good as last year’s Spring Festival, there are different themes such as spy war, hard science fiction and costume, but the theme attributes and selling points are still relatively diverse.

Third, there are a lot of "familiar faces" in this Spring Festival. Zhang Yimou, Jia Ling, Ning Hao, Han Han and other directors have made billions and billions of box office achievements in previous Spring Festival files. Jia Ling, Lei Jiayin, Andy Lau and Shen Teng are also frequent visitors to Spring Festival movies, and the main creative lineup is strong, and the competition is bound to be very fierce.

So who is most likely to have the last laugh in this Spring Festival movie with the most laughter?

Lighthouse Professional Edition "Spring Festival Movies Want to Watch the List in Real Time" provides multi-dimensional real-time heat data. Recently, in the media communication meeting of "Good Wind Leverage, Smart Escort", some battles before the Spring Festival screening were also summarized. Therefore, although the pre-sale of Spring Festival stalls has not yet started, we can already analyze the competition pattern from the latest data and industry tools.

According to the real-time announcement data of lighthouse professional edition, as of the evening of January 24,The cumulative number of movies to be shown and the number of new movies to be seen on the 7 th are ranked as follows:

Among them, YOLO ranked first in terms of the cumulative number of people who want to see it and the number of people who want to see it on the 7 th, and the number of people who want to see it on the 7 th is relatively large. YOLO won the "Want to See" championship in Taobao Film for 14 consecutive days after the file was finalized, and the heat before the screening turned higher and higher; Pegasus 2, Boonie Bears: Time Twist and Article 20 constitute the top four.
Since the summer file last year, Tik Tok film marketing has been paid more and more attention by the industry, according toAccording to the statistics of Lighthouse Professional Edition, the number and likes of Tik Tok official fans in the Spring Festival file are as follows:

In addition to the long-term IP-based bear haunt, YOLO ranks first in the Spring Festival movies in terms of the number of praises, fans and millions of praises.In addition, the official praise of Pegasus 2 and The Movie Emperor has reached more than 15 million, ranking second and third after YOLO. At present, Article 20 has risen to the second place in the number of fans in Tik Tok, but it still lags behind The Movie Emperor in the number of topics played and the official praise data, and its popularity is relatively slow.

Based on the above data, Reading Entertainment Jun thinks that the competition pattern of Spring Festival films before pre-sale is relatively clear:

YOLO is a well-deserved leader in the early stage.Jia Ling returned for the first time after winning the Spring Festival box office title with Hi, Mom, and the audience’s expectations were already high. In addition, in order to shape the role of "disappearing" in the public eye for a whole year, YOLO was officially announced to enter the Spring Festival file with a short composition, and the hot search for the "explosive" logo dominated the platform for a long time. So far, there are not many materials released by YOLO, but it has become the most appealing film in the schedule, and the pre-sale results should be considerable.

Boonie Bears: Time Twist is expected to set a new box office record."Bears haunt" series has been deeply involved in the Spring Festival file for many years, and has formed its own unique animated film track, and has gradually become a benchmark to measure the success or failure of the Spring Festival file film. Its box office ranking rose from the fifth place in 2017 and 2018 to the fourth place. Until 2023, "Bears with Me" reached the third place in the Spring Festival, and it has already broken out of the parent-child market.

This year’s "Boonie Bears: Time Twist" has a unique theme among many live-action comedies. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, Up to now, "Reversing Time and Space" is the one with the highest number of people who want to see it in the same period, and even once ranked first in the schedule, which will probably continue this series of broken circles.

The topic of "Pegasus 2" and "Article 20" in the early stage was not as hot as that of YOLO, but we want to see the data closely followed by YOLO, and it also has the first echelon sales.According to Dengta Data, Pegasus 2’s image of wanting to see users is the one with the highest proportion of men, while Article 20 is the one with the highest proportion of women, and the proportion of teenagers is as high as 21.3%. The audiences of the two films are quite different.

At present, the data of Pegasus 2 is ahead of Article 20 to some extent, perhaps because the basic box office of actors such as Shen Teng and the IP appeal as the sequel of the Spring Festival file have advantages. Recently, the data of these two films have increased rapidly, which has gradually widened the gap compared with Viva La Vida and The Movie Emperor.
The popularity of "The Movie Emperor" and "Viva La Vida" before screening is relatively backward, and it is expected that word-of-mouth effect will support the long-term trend.The Movie Emperor has a high proportion of users in first-tier cities, but it is not as good as other comedies in the sinking market where the Spring Festival file is more important, which may also have a certain impact on the pre-sale. However, Ning Hao+Andy Lau’s lineup is excellent, and the theme and style are relatively novel. There is still hope for a counterattack with word-of-mouth effect after the official release.

From the data mentioned above, it is not difficult to find that there are many factors that affect the box office performance of Spring Festival movies. Only the popularity before screening is affected by a large number of variables, such as short video communication, main creative lineup, theme characteristics, audience gender, audience city, etc. After the pre-sale of the Spring Festival file is opened and the film is officially released, the situation will change even more, the word-of-mouth of the film will continue to ferment, and the public sentiment and the spread of the second creation will also bring more unpredictable box office trends.

This "complicated" market change has become more obvious since 2023. In the past, the titles of the directors and starring stars alone were enough to stabilize the basic disc, and cinemas often made clear the follow-up film arrangement strategy through the attendance in the first two days. But now, almost all films need to adjust their announcement direction according to real-time public opinion. For example, the tonality of the announcement in the early and late period of last summer’s "Feng Shen" changed obviously, and the annual meeting of "Feng Shen", "Chang ‘an Three Wan Li" could not stop! A large number of films, such as, are box office trends that are flat and high, low and high, so that cinemas also need to consider more variables when screening films in the next week.

To make clear and master these variables in time, the industry needs more detailed and accurate data query, as well as more timely, comprehensive and concise public opinion summary and more valuable box office forecast.Faced with this imminent market demand, Lighthouse Professional Edition announced that it would open Lighthouse AI free of charge during the Spring Festival, contributing to the Spring Festival movie market. In the era of big model, AI has greatly improved industrial efficiency in diversified industries, and it is the first time that AI big model tools are open to the industry public in the film market. After a period of trial, Reading Entertainment Jun found that the practicality of Lighthouse AI as a vertical AI tool has been considerable, or it will become an important aid for film practitioners to deal with the "complicated" market.

At present, the application of lighthouse AI is mainly in four aspects: box office prediction, intelligent inquiry, public opinion analysis and AI materials. At present, the AI function can be tried out in the professional version of Lighthouse. It is reported that new functions will come out after the pre-sale of Spring Festival files, which will provide more help for the announcement direction and film arrangement decision-making of movies in Spring Festival files.

The Lighthouse AI box office prediction function was launched in 2023, and has been completely upgraded for the Spring Festival file. During the booking period, Lighthouse AI will provide a box office forecast three days in advance, which can predict the single box office, the large box office and the total box office three days later. According to the lighthouse sharing meeting, there is another heavy function-AI box office forecast analysisWe will take you to decrypt the "black box" of box office forecast data and tell practitioners what market factors have caused the change of box office forecast. AI will provide reference for practitioners by combining regional performance, schedule competition, word-of-mouth rating and other factors.

Intelligent query function allows users to query data in the form of dialogue, instead of spending a lot of time looking for the page where the data is located on the product as in the past, users can conveniently obtain massive information such as box office, pre-sale ticket crown map for tomorrow, schedule analysis, distribution information and so on. The data can be obtained immediately, which basically covers the daily data dimensions needed by the film industry. Lighthouse AI also designed visual charts for data recovery, such as multi-film data comparison and intelligent chart generation of real-time ticket crown map, to help practitioners understand the competition trend of the top films in the country. This Spring Festival file,Intelligent query open real-time war situation and opening progress query, help the announcement of the schedule.

Lighthouse AI intelligent query

The AI public opinion analysis function can help users to grasp the word-of-mouth situation of movies at any time.Users can choose the word-of-mouth performance of a movie in different fields, such as short videos, ticketing platforms, social media, etc., and they can also choose to understand the public opinion of people of different ages, genders and different sub-cities, and use AI intelligence to summarize the selling points and slots of the movie.AI will combine massive user opinion data to form a summary discussion, which has reference value for publicity, media and cinemas.

At present, the difficulties faced by the film industry in box office prediction and data analysis are generally due to the "increased uncertainty" after the complexity of box office influencing factors, because the data dimension sources are becoming more and more complicated. For example, to analyze the pre-screening heat, the ticketing platform wants to see the data, Weibo has a hot search, Xiaohongshu has a discussion on planting grass, and Aauto Quicker, Tik Tok has a rapid spread of video materials and hot dismantling …What Lighthouse AI has achieved may be to provide a timely, convenient and deterministic "answer" for ordinary users and professional users as much as possible in this large piece of "uncertainty".
This answer may not accurately predict the future, but as an aid to decision-making, and to improve the efficiency of the collection and analysis of conventional film data, it must have its long-term considerable value.

Driven by high-quality content and cultivated by mass consumption habits, in recent years, the Spring Festival movies have continuously raised the topic of this schedule with their wonderful plots, excellent production standards and ingenious marketing strategies.The 2024 Spring Festival file is a "big node" that the industry will focus on in terms of content tonality, announcement selection and industry data decision-making.

There are many new phenomena in the film market since the summer of 2023, which need a more concentrated period to prove-what kind of movies the audience needs and what kind of marketing strategies they accept, and whether the film and television practitioners can improve their work efficiency and decision-making effect with the help of new intelligent data analysis tools, and how the changes will affect them, we will wait and see.

* Original article, please indicate the source when reprinting.