[Review] Soybean oil fell by 0.46% in a day. The organization said that oil differentiation was intensified.

Market performance

Intraday news

　　National Grain and Oil Information Center: It is expected that the high oil price will be adjusted back in the near future, but the strong trend will continue.

　　This week, the domestic palm oil price fell, which led to the overall downward trend of the oil price. This round of decline was mainly due to the release of negative factors accumulated recently by the market. For example, the B40 firewood policy in Malaysia may not be implemented as scheduled, and the palm oil export in the producing area will slow down after the price increase. In the future, the Trump administration’s support for the development of firewood in the United States will be weakened, and the international soybean oil demand and price will fall. In the long run, the trend of slowing down the global palm oil production and increasing industrial demand has not changed. Coupled with the tight supply of sunflower oil and vegetable oil, it is expected that palm oil prices will be adjusted at a high level in the near future, and the strong trend will continue. (National Grain and Oil Information Center)

Variety fundamentals

　　According to () iFinD data:

　　On November 15th, the spot price of primary soybean oil in each region was quoted at 8445.00 yuan/ton, which was 171.00 yuan/ton higher than the main futures price (8274.00 yuan/ton).

　　On November 12th, the port inventory of soybean oil recorded 1,068,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons compared with the previous trading day.

Institutional point of view

　　(): oil differentiation is intensified.

　　[Analysis of supply and demand] Palm oil: As the output of the supply side shows a year-on-year reduction on a daily basis, the supply is expected to be tight, and the consumer side is gradually aware of resistance to high prices. Due to the upside-down import profits at the domestic supply end, the import window cannot be opened, and the domestic palm oil supply is expected to continue to be tight. At present, the main downstream imports just need to be maintained. However, due to the extremely poor price-performance ratio of palm oil, the inventory is limited by the lack of supply, but the weak consumption makes it run at a low level, and the inventory accumulates under the short-term centralized operation in Hong Kong. Follow-up needs to pay attention to whether the quotation of the place of origin can continue to hold firm. The possible impact of consumption on the place of origin makes the expected performance of the quotation unstable. It is expected that palm tung oil may have a short-term correction, but there is still an upward drive in the follow-up.

　　Soybean oil: When the profit of near-end crushing is firm in the place of origin, domestic soybean purchase is slightly tight. At present, due to the problem of soybean arrival rhythm, the near-end soybean crushing and soybean oil output are affected, but due to the high supply and inventory in the early stage, the price suppression is obvious day by day. On the consumption side, although soybean oil has completed the demand for other oils and fats with the support of cost performance, the collective decline in the consumption of the three major oils and fats this year has also limited the incremental consumption of soybean oil. When the total supply is abundant and the raw material cost of soybean oil is low, the soybean oil inventory always remains at a high level and restricts the upper space of the three major oils and fats.

　　Vegetable oil: Due to the change of Canada’s China policy, it may affect China’s attitude towards the anti-dumping review of Canadian rapeseed. In the case of repeated anti-dumping duties, it is possible to relax the expectation of tight supply of domestic imported rapeseed in the future. At the near end, with the harvest of Russian rapeseed, the concern about the tight supply of long-term rapeseed and vegetable oil has been alleviated to some extent; At the consumption end, because rapeseed is tight in the future due to the current pricing in advance, vegetable oil is obviously at a premium to other oils and fats, so consumption has also reached the level just needed, and the speed of removing vegetable oil inventory has obviously slowed down.

　　In terms of import profit, the import profit has weakened due to the plan to levy anti-dumping duties on vegetable oil to a certain extent, and the subsequent vegetable oil import expectation has slowed down.

　　[Market outlook] Because the overall supply of oil is still on the high side, there are mutual constraints among varieties; And with the palm becoming stronger and stronger, under the influence of negative feedback of consumption, there may be a callback demand for oil due to the potential negative factors of superimposed kidney beans.

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