In addition to the weather, the price of apples that the Prime Minister is concerned about is also operating.

　　Pork price has always been an important factor affecting CPI (Consumer Price Index), but now fresh fruit is also coming from behind. In April, the national consumer price rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and the price of fresh fruit rose by 11.9%, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.22 percentage points.

　　This situation is also valued by the top management. A few days ago, Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China visited Jinan. During the inspection, Li Keqiang stopped temporarily and walked into a fruit shop, asking about the price increase of fruits and the reasons, mainly about the price of apples.

　　Yantai, Shandong Province is an important producing area of apples. Mr. Zhang of Yantai Apple Association recently told the First Financial Reporter that the price of apples is at the highest level in history, and there is still room for growth.

　　From pork to apples, how long will the price increase in the food sector last? What role does capital play in it?

　　The price increase will not last at a high level.

　　Apple has reached the stage of "selling by itself".

　　Zhang Chengping, the owner of the fruit shop that the Prime Minister stopped to inspect, told the local media that the current price increase of Apple is relatively large. "In the past two months, the purchase price has increased by nearly 3 yuan money compared with two months ago, and the increase has reached nearly half of the price of Apple." At the same time, the increase in Apple’s price has caused the sales volume to drop by about one-third. At present, the apples in Zhang Chengping’s shop are sold to 12 yuan for a catty.

　　Because the caliber is inconsistent, the specific increase of Apple’s price is also difficult to unify. Mr. Sun, a contact of a local Taobao seller in Yantai, told the First Financial Reporter that the price of apples in 2019 was the highest in more than a decade, almost three times that in 2018, and the price of apples in 2018 was stable at around a catty in 3.4 yuan.

　　"This round of increase started when Apple bought it at the end of October last year. Due to the freezing damage and reduction in production in the western producing areas, the purchase price of Apple opened higher and higher." Mr. Zhang of the Apple Association in Yantai told the First Financial Reporter, "In 2018, the production in the western producing areas will be reduced by about 50%. For example, in some areas of Shaanxi Province, the production will be reduced by 80%, and the production in the eastern producing areas will be reduced by about 25%. The imbalance between supply and demand is an important factor leading to the increase in apple prices. "

　　"About 40% of the cold storage in Yantai has been out of stock, and the price of apples has increased by 45% from January to May." Regarding the future price trend, Mr. Zhang said that the current price of Apple should be the highest in history, and there is still room for growth in the short term. But in the longer term, it depends on supply and demand. "This year is Yantai Apple ‘ Danian ’ Judging from the amount of flowers and fruit setting rate this year, it will not reduce production, but it also depends on factors such as the weather in the later period. "

　　In view of the soaring fruit prices, Liu Aihua, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, also said at the recent press conference of the State Council Office that the short-term impact on fresh vegetables and fresh fruits is not sustainable due to the seasonal factors of extreme weather, so it can be predicted that the price increase of fresh vegetables and fresh fruits will not last at a high level.

　　The Interest Chain of Apple Industry

　　Whenever the price of a product "changes", people generally think of "middlemen earning the difference". Specifically, what is apple like?

　　Take the fruit farmers as an example, although they have encountered a loss year, they are generally profitable. The local fruit farmers in Yantai told the First Financial Reporter that the net income per mu of fruit farmers this year was about 20,000 yuan, and last year it was about 13,000 yuan.

　　How much does a catty of apples cost? According to local fruit farmers, the number of apples bagged in an acre of orchard is about 20,000 ~ 30,000, and the cost of each apple (bagging+pesticide application+fertilization) is 60 ~ 80 cents. The cost of a kilo of apples is about 1.3 yuan ~1.6 yuan, and the highest planting cost of apples in an acre is about 15,000 yuan.

　　In terms of purchasing and storage, Mr. Zhang introduced that last year, the average price of first-class and second-class apples was from 3.5 yuan to 3.8 yuan per catty, and the current delivery price was from 7.5 yuan to 8 yuan per catty. In terms of the cost of cold storage, the cold storage fee is 0.25 yuan per catty, and it is not included in the packaging fee, labor fee and transportation fee. Apple’s general storage period is about half a year, and it is sold and shipped at the same time. The highest storage cost is per catty in 0.3 yuan.

　　To sum up, the price of each link in Apple’s industrial chain is roughly the planting cost of 1.5 yuan per catty, and the buyer buys 3.5 yuan per catty and 7.5 yuan per catty, and the retail terminal is 12 yuan per catty according to the above-mentioned price of Zhangchengping Fruit Shop.

　　Capital entry speculation

　　Not only apples, but also "garlic madness" has come. According to the data of Jinxiang Garlic Industry Information Association in Jining, on May 21, 2018, the price of fresh garlic was 0.60 ~1.10 yuan per catty, but by May 21, 2019, the price of fresh garlic jumped to 2.20 ~2.40 yuan per catty.

　　The reason of "garlic madness" is also due to the weather. Local people say that the low temperature this year has seriously affected the growth of garlic, so that garlic moss is too small to be pulled out by hand.

　　Weather is the main reason for the change of supply and demand of most agricultural products, but will the change of output really have such a huge impact on the price?

　　Take Apple as an example. Lin Guofa, the research director of Brick Agricultural Products Collection and Purchase Network, told the First Financial Reporter that behind the price increase, there is also capital speculation. Last year, the north suffered "the most serious freezing injury in 30 years" on a large scale, which led to the reduction of apple production by about 25%, the reduction of inventory and the increase of apple prices. At the same time, smart people "seize the opportunity" to enter the market for speculation.

　　Shao Gang, the founder of D.D.D of Yantai Nancun Orchard, one of the top ten brands of apples in China, told the First Financial Reporter that it is normal and abnormal for the price of apples to go up this year. What’s normal is that last year’s apple production was affected by natural disasters, resulting in a shortage of supply in the market; What is abnormal is that, apart from the influence of supply and demand, the price of high-end apples has been rising year after year, and there is a capital factor. In recent years, the behavior of some fresh retailers to drive up prices and monopolize the market has disrupted the normal operation of the high-end apple market.

　　Shao Gang believes that a substantial increase in the price of apples this year will correspondingly raise the expectations of fruit farmers for the apple market in the coming year. However, increasing the investment in apple production will also affect the relationship between supply and demand. If the price of apples falls in the coming year, the fruit farmers will be hurt. This is not a healthy market cycle, which is undoubtedly unfavorable to the long-term benign development of the Apple market.

　　Both garlic and apples have a common feature, that is, they are relatively storable. This also provides the basic conditions for capital intervention. When some hot money of roasted seeds and nuts sees that the inventory of garlic, apples and so on is low, they will intervene in hoarding goods, thus further raising the prices of these agricultural products.

　　(Intern Li Mengyao also contributed to this article)